The Manic-Depressive IBEX

The degree of devestation already done in this index is one of the key aspects of my hypothesis that we are indeed in something more than an X wave of (Z) of [2], as I mentioned in my previous FTSE post.  I am not sure how you get that far away from a channel and call this anything other than a trend change of Primary degree.  The only other option would be if the IBEX and Spain are pursuing a course very independent of the rest of non-Germanic Europe.  I would doubt that, as the wave forms are very similar fractals, just of different degrees.

In any case, it is time for the bearish case for the IBEX to play out without further delay.  I came up with a count last night, and Highrev presented another this morning.  They are both viable, and both have extremely limited upside.  Based on the RSI in the 99 min chart, this index has expended just about everything just to make a kiss-back of the 200 DMA.  It would be very difficult to imagine it now bursting higher in the meat of a third wave, as I discussed for the FTSE.

IBEX DAILY

IBEX ZOOM

The 99 min chart shows the diverging RSI pattern.  In blue, you have Highrev's count, which is looking for a quasi-ED for [c] of 2, without the 1-4 overlap.  It would allow for one more possible five wave up to finish c of (v) of [c].  My original count is in magenta, and would imply that we are pretty much finished now.

IBEX 99 MIN

The obvious level to watch here is 11566.10, which is what I am calling the top of (2) of [3].  (Yes, I have this index at a more advanced stage of decline than most others, which I have in (1) of [3].)